| Name: Shaonwita Pal |
| Affiliation: CESSI, IISER Kolkata |
| Conference ID: ASI2026_245 |
| Title: A Comparative Study of Polar Magnetic Precursors for Solar Cycle Prediction |
| Abstract Type: Poster |
| Abstract Category: Sun, Solar System, Exoplanets, and Astrobiology |
| Author(s) and Co-Author(s) with Affiliation: Shaonwita Pal(Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur, 741246, West Bengal, India) |
| Abstract: Accurate prediction of solar cycle amplitude is crucial for understanding long-term solar variability and forecasting space weather. Among various proposed precursors, the Sun’s polar magnetic fields near solar minimum have emerged as one of the most reliable indicators of the strength of the subsequent solar cycle. In this study, we reconstruct the long-term evolution of the magnetic field over multiple solar cycles using a data-driven surface flux transport model constrained by observations and perform a comparative analysis of two widely used polar precursors – the polar field strength and the axial dipole moment – to assess their effectiveness in forecasting the amplitude of subsequent sunspot cycles. Our results indicate that the axial dipole moment provides a more consistent and robust indicator of future cycle strength than the polar field alone. These findings support the axial dipole moment as a key magnetic memory of the solar cycle and reinforce its role in solar cycle prediction frameworks based on the Babcock–Leighton solar dynamo theory. |
